金融泡沫与房地产泡沫的共生模型研究

近年来随着我国房地产业的迅猛发展,我国房地产业是否出现泡沫,房地产泡沫是否引发金融泡沫越来越受到人们的关注。本文剖析了房地产泡沫引发金融泡沫的主要机理,同时从金融泡沫的角度出发,通过条件假设,简化推导出房地产泡沫破灭导致借贷市场失衡的房地产泡沫率临界值,进而以现实泡沫率与泡沫率临界值的比较分析,判定房地产泡沫引发金融泡沫的可能性,并针对其中最具影响的关键因素提出了防范房地产泡沫引发金融泡沫的措施。

Analysis of the Coexistence Model of Financial Bubble and Real Estate Bubble

With the rapid development of real estate industry,people are increasingly concerned about the possibilities of real estate bubble and subsequent financial bubble that may arise.This paper analyzes the major reasons that create real estate bubbles,and works out the critical value of the rate of real estate bubbles that disturbs the credit market from the perspective of financial bubbles and by making assumptions.This paper also assesses the possibility of real estate bubble' s triggering financial bubbles by comparing the actual bubble rate and the critical value of bubble rate,and puts forward measures on how to prevent real estate bubbles from inducingfinancial bubbles by analyzing key factors.