广东省房地产金融风险实证分析

房地产金融风险特指银行等金融机构为房地产业提供资金的筹集、融通、清算等金融服务活动中,由于各种事先无法预料(即不确定)因素的影响,使金融机构的实际收益与预期收益发生背离,从而蒙受经济损失的可能性。本文通过参考现有房地产金融风险分析的主要因素,从金融机构、房地产开发企业及购房者这三个方面对当前房地产市场的风险状况进行分析,并通过定量的方法估算当前广州房地产市场的投机程度,最后提出相应防范房地产金融风险的建议。

Empirical Analysis on Real Estate Financial Risk of Guangdong Province

Real estate financial risk is the possibility of losses incurred by the failure of commercial banks in meeting its expected profit goal due to unpredictable factors,when financial institutions provide financial services to real estate companies, such as lending,financing and settlement.This paper not only studies the current risk condition of real estate market from the perspectives of financial institutions,the real estate companies and the purchasers,but also estimates the speculation degree in current Guangzhou real estate market by quantitative models.And finally we put forward some suggestions on preventing the real estate financial risk.