经济增长、汇率上升与资产泡沫——日元升值之路的启示

随着经济的持续高速增长,我国必然在相当长时期内继续面临人民币升值的压力.如何正确处理这种升值压力,在保持国内物价稳定和经济健康发展的前提下实现汇率制度的平稳改革成为目前广泛关注的焦点.本文将以日元升值过程中的经验和教训为主要着眼点,对此问题进行探讨.本文认为,升值并非造成日本经济衰退的根本原因,升值过程中产生的资产泡沫才是真正原因.随着中国经济的增长和劳动生产率的相对提高,人民币将逐渐升值,而保持货币政策的独立性、掌握人民币升值的主动权、防止资产泡沫将是今后我国汇率工作的重点.

Economic Growth,Appreciation and Asset Bubbles:Lessons from Yen's Appreciation

With high and rapid growth in China's economy,there will certainly be pressure on RMB appreciation in the very long time period.How to deal with such appreciation pressure,while maintaining domestic price stability and healthy economic growth has become widespread focus.This paper focuses on the lessons of Yen's appreciation and mainly discusses the exchange policy and asset bubbles.In the long run,as China's labor productivity relative increases,RMB will gradually appreciate though at a slow and gradual pa...