| 中国房地产价格的泡沫检验和空间联动分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 钱金保.中国房地产价格的泡沫检验和空间联动分析[J].南方金融,2008(12). |
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| 作者姓名： | 钱金保 |
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| 作者单位： | 中山大学岭南学院,广东,广州,510275 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文利用Pesaran提出的面板数据处理方法分析中国1996-2006年房地产价格,发现房地产价格和居民收入之间存在协整关系,但房价上涨速度快于居民收入增长速度,房地产市场具有"理性泡沫"特征。进一步的分析表明,城市化进程和空间扩散是短期内导致房价波动的两个重要因素,而利率的影响不显著。
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| 关 键 词： | 房地产价格 共同因子 面板协整 空间溢出 |
The Bubble Test and Spatial Co-movement Analysis of Real Estate Price in China |
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| Qian Jinbao.The Bubble Test and Spatial Co-movement Analysis of Real Estate Price in China[J].South China Finance,2008(12). |
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| Authors: | Qian Jinbao |
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| Abstract: | this paper analyzes real estate prices in China from 1996 to 2006 using Pesaran's"panel data approach".We find that there is a co-integrated relationship between real estate price and household income while the growth rate of real estate price is obviously greater than that of household income, which indicates the existence of"rational bubble"in real estate market.Further analysis shows that both urbanization and spatial expansion have a significant effect on real estate prices in the short run, while interest only has a slight effect. |
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| Keywords: | Real Estate Price Common Factors Panel Co-integration Spatial Spill-over |
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