资产价格波动与货币政策调整问题研究

近年来,尤其是在2007年,中国股票和房地产等资产价格快速增长,给宏观调控带来了很大挑战,因此央行在调整货币政策时是否应考虑资产价格的波动,已成为学术界讨论的热点问题。在这种背景下,本文通过对资产价格渠道在货币政策传导中有效性的实证检验显示,货币政策对资产价格有着较大的影响力,然而货币政策通过资产价格渠道影响实体经济效果有限。基于此,本文不主张把资产价格纳入货币政策规则,但是央行在制定货币政策时应关注资产价格的波动。

Fluctuation of Asset Price and Adjustment of Monetary Policy

In recent years, especially in 2007, soaring asset price including stock, real estate has brought great challenge for macro adjustment in China. For this reason, whether central banks should take asset price fluctuation into consideration while adjusting monetary policy has become a hot issue in academic circles. Under this background, through empirical examination of the effectiveness of asset price channel in monetary policy transmission mechanism, this paper finds that monetary policy has fairly big effect on asset price while its effect to real economy via asset price channel is rather limited. Accordingly, this paper argues that central banks should not put asset price into monetary policy rules, but should pay due attention to asset price fluctuation while formulating monetary policy.