人民币均衡汇率的估计：理论与实证判断

从供给角度运用Balassa-Samuelson模型对Elbadawi模型作了改进,引入了生产率因素,解决了人均吸收率的内生决定机制问题;并运用BEER对人民币均衡实际汇率和汇率的失调程度进行了实证分析。结果显示,改革开放以来,均衡实际汇率的走势明显分为两个阶段,以1995年为界,前段主要呈现出贬值趋势,后一段呈现出升值趋势,但趋势并不明显;同时汇率的高估主要表现在1980年第2季度至1985年第1季度,而低估则主要出现在1986年第2季度至1995年第1季度;且当前的汇率失调程度并不严重。

An Estimation of RMB＇s Equilibrium Exchange Rate Theoretical and Empirical Analysis

Making use of Balassa-Samuelson model from the supply point of view this paper makes improvements to the Elbadawi.Hence productivity factor can be allowed to go into the new model which solves the endogenous mechanism of the personal absorb rate.Apart from this this paper chooses the BEER to do an empirical analysis on the RMB＇s real equilibrium exchange rate and exchange rate misalignment.The conclusion shows that First after the Reform and Open Policy had been implemented the trend of REER can be obviously divided into two stages which takes 1995 as its boundary.Before 1995 the REER mainly presents a depreciation trend while after 1995 the REER mainly presents an appreciation trend although it＇s not obvious.Second the overestimate of exchange rate depicts its performance mainly from the second quarter of 1980 to the first quarter of 1985 whereas the underestimate appears from the second quarter of 1986 to the first quarter of 1995.Third the problem of current exchange rate misalignment is not serious.