从边际吸收倾向看中国经常账户顺差形成原因

通过检验边际消费倾向、边际投资倾向和政府边际支出倾向与经常账户的关系,得到消费和投资是经常账户差额的解释变量,而边际吸收倾向出现"拐点"主要是由于边际消费倾向下降。通过观察边际吸收倾向和边际消费倾向的时序变化,认为中国特有的储蓄偏好、体制改革导致不确定性增加等观点均无法解释中国边际消费倾向的下降,而人口结构的变化可能是影响边际消费水平下降的长期和结构性因素。

Factors Accounting for the Formation of the Surplus in China's Current Accounts from the Perspective of the Propensity for Marginal Absorption

Investigation of the relationship between the propensity for marginal consumption and the propensity for marginal investment versus the propensity for marginal government expenditures in the regular accounts shows that the changes in consumption and investment are the explanatory variables behind the variables in the current accounts,and the "turning point" in the propensity for marginal absorption is due mainly to the impact of the downward trend in the propensity for marginal consumption.Observation of the changes in the propensity for marginal absorption and the trend in marginal consumption leads one to believe that the fairly good level of reserves of the country and the uncertain boost from structural changes cannot account for the downward trend in marginal consumption,while the changes in the structure of the population may be the long-term and structural factors effecting the downward trend in overall consumption level.