房地产投资和金融支持实体经济的交互影响研究--基于环沪都市圈的分析

基于房地产市场与金融发展的紧密关系,本文将房地产投资、金融发展与实体经济发展纳入同一框架进行综合研究。首先梳理房地产、金融效率的环沪都市圈1发展现状,深入探讨房地产、金融与宏观经济增长的作用机制。然后以2003~2016年环沪都市圈为样本,采用交互效应模型分析房地产投资通过金融体系间接影响经济发展的综合效应。分析得到的主要结论包括:环沪都市圈房地产投资对实体经济发展整体呈现一定的负向作用,主要是抑制了金融支持实体经济的效率,两者负相关系数为0.75;经实证研究进一步发现,在经济发展水平较弱、金融化程度越高的城市群,房地产投资对金融支持实体经济效率的抑制作用更加显著,是全部样本的2.4倍,这也恰好解释了浙北经济长期落后于苏南的原因。

Research on the Interaction of Real Estate Investments and Financial Support to Real Economy in Metropolises Around Shanghai

Based on the close relationship between real estate market and financial development, this paper integrates real estate investments, financial and real economy development into the same framework. Firstly, it summarizes the current situation of the real estate investments and financial efficiency of the 11 metropolises around Shanghai, discusses the mechanism between the real estate investments and the macroeconomic growth. Focusing on the 11 metropolises from 2003 to 2016, this paper uses GMM model to analyze the interaction effect. The main conclusions are as follows: Real estate investments in the 11 metropolises around Shanghai has a negative effect on the overall development of the real economy, mainly restraining the efficiency of financial support to the real economy, with a negative correlation coefficient of 0.75. The empirical study further finds that the metropolises with lower economic development and higher degree of financialization have more significant inhibiting effect from real estate investments, which is 2.2 times of the total sample. This also explains why the economy of northern Zhejiang lags behind that of southern Jiangsu for a long time.