贸易谈判主导走势,双向波动特征明显——2019年人民币汇率走势回顾与展望

2019年人民币对美元即期汇率呈现先升后贬再升的“N”字型走势。中美贸易谈判进展继续主导人民币汇率波动;国际收支保持基本平衡,汇率对国际收支“调节器”作用显现;逆周期调节措施稳定市场预期,人民币境内外价差保持基本稳定。展望2020年,我国国际收支有望继续保持总体稳定、基本平衡的格局,预计中美贸易谈判进展情况将继续主导人民币汇率走势。

Trade Negotiations Dominate the RMB Exchange Rate,and the RMB Shows an Obvious Characteristic of Two-Way Fluctuations---Review and Prospect of RMB Exchange Rate in 2019

In 2019,the RMB spot rate presented an N-shaped movement against the USD.The progresses of China-US trade negotiations continued to dominate the fluctuation of the RMB.The international payments remained basically balanced,and the exchange rate played a bigger role in adjusting the balance of payments.The countercyclical measures stabilized the market expectations,and the spread between CNY and CNH rates remained basically stable.Looking forward to 2020,China's balance of payments is expected to maintain generally stable and basically balanced,and the progresses of China-US trade negotiations will continue to dominate the RMB exchange rate.