多重均衡模式与近期人民币汇率波动

当前我国外汇市场已进入多重均衡状态。在给定货物贸易和直接投资累计较大顺差、人民币利率高于外币利率的情况下，市场预期变化仍有可能对跨境资本流动和人民币汇率走势产生巨大影响。这也可以解释当前我国国际收支特点和近期人民币汇率波动。随着国际收支平衡机制的不断完善以及境内外经济金融环境的不断演变，跨境资本流动和人民币汇率双向波动有可能成为一种新常态。

Multiple equilibrium model and recent RMB exchange rate fluctuations

China＇s FX market has entered into multiple equilibrium state. Against the background of large accumulated surplus in goods trade and direct investment and higher RMB interest rate than foreign currency interest rates, the market expectation change might have substantial impacts on cross-border capital flow and IRMB exchange rate move. This also explains the features of balance of payments and the recent fluctuations in RMB exchange rate. Following the improving BOP balancing mechanism and changing domestic and overseas economic and financial environments, cross-border capital flow and RMB exchange rate two-way fluctuation may become a new normal.