内生增长理论对政府公共支出与经济增长关系的解释——来自中国1952—2011年的经验证据

本文基于内生增长理论（Endogenous Growth Theory）分析政府公共支出与经济增长的关系。基于Barro（1990）提出的框架，但采用Arrowand Kutz（1970）提出的方法，将公共投资通过直接资本形成增加资本存量，形成内生经济增长，并采用Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans（1965）模型的基本假设，利用1952—2011年中国时间序列数据对影响经济增长的因素进行检验。结果显示：政府公共物质资本投入及政府人力资本投入对经济增长均具有正效应，但政府公共物质资本投入对经济增长的效应微弱，而政府人力资本投入对经济增长的效应较大。同时还验证了政府物质资本投入并不是经济增长的格兰杰原因（Granger Cause），而政府人力资本投资是经济增长的格兰杰原因（Granger Cause），且影响滞后并持久，教育投入对中国经济增长的影响是长期渗透的。

An interpretation of Endogenous Growth theory on Relationship between Public Expenditure of the Government and Economic Growth——Empirical Evidence from the Years 1952-2011 of China

This paper is based on the endogenous growth theory and analyzes the relationship between public expenditure of government and economic growth. The research procedures are as follows, the framework is proposed according to Barro （1990） ,but we adopt the method propounded by Arrow and Kutz （1970） , by which public in- vestment increases the capital stock through direct capital formation, and we employ the fundamental assumption putting forward by Ramsey - Cass - Koopmans （ 1965 ）. This paper uses time series data from 1952 -2011 of China to test the factors that may affect economic growth and the result shows both public material capital input and human capital input of government have positive effect on economy growth, but the effect of public physical capital invest- ment on economic growth is weak while government investment in human capital has remarkable effect on economic growth. The article also verifies that government investment in physical capital is not Granger cause of economic growth,however,government investment in human capital is the Granger cause of economic growth and the impact is lag and lasting. In China the investment in education has made a long - term penetration impact on economic growth.