内蒙古经济发展与工业污染关系的动态分析

本文结合内蒙古区情，对内蒙古经济发展和环境污染关系进行动态分析。首先，根据研究目的进行指标的选取。其次，构造经济发展综合指数，利用灰色预测模型对经济发展综合指数进行两期预测，进一步说明内蒙古经济发展情况。再次，运用单位根检验得出序列一阶差分后均平稳，属于同阶单整序列，满足协整检验的条件，由协整检验得出工业三废增速和经济增长率存在长期协整关系，通过用差分后的数据建立VAR模型进行脉冲响应分析和方差分解分析，得出经济发展和工业环境污染的双向作用机制：经济增长率与工业三废排放量增速互相有不同程度的正向冲击，工业三废之间作为有机整体互相影响从而加速工业环境的恶化。最后结合分析结果提出走新型工业化道路的对策。

Dynamic Analysis of the Relationship Between Economic Growth and Industrial Pollution in Inner Mongolia

Combing with the situation of Inner Mongolia ,This paper makes a dynamic analysis of the relation- ship between economic growth and industrial environments in Inner Mongolia, firstly, some indicators are selected based on the purpose of the study ; Secondly, the economic development index is constructed. The next two of the index were forecasted by using the grey forecasting model. Again, based on the unit root tests, the sequences of first - order difference are smooth, so it meet the assumptions of co - integration test. The result of Johansen co - integration test reveals that there is a long - term equilibrium relationship among the Inner Mongolia economic growth and industrial environments. By using impulse response and variance decomposition analysis, It is be re- vealed that economic growth and industrial environments have a two -way effect mechanism, that economic growth rate and the growth rate of industrial waste emissions have positive two - way impact. Finally, combining the analy- sis result and puts forward some countermeasures to take a new road to industrialization.