| 人口结构、宏观经济因素、经济增长对储蓄率的影响 |
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| 引用本文： | 申秋红.人口结构、宏观经济因素、经济增长对储蓄率的影响[J].内蒙古财经学院学报,2013(5):26-31. |
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| 作者姓名： | 申秋红 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]中国农业科学院农业资源与农业区划研究所,北京100081 [2]中国人口与发展研究中心,北京100081 |
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| 基金项目： | “十二五”国家科技支撑计划项目（2012BAI40B01） |
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| 摘 要： | 伴随着经济的快速增长,我国储蓄率一直居高不下.本文选取人口结构、宏观经济因素和经济增长三方面的变量对我国高储蓄率的成因进行探究.通过协整理论的EG两步法否定了储蓄率和存款利率、城市化率存在协整关系,得出宏观经济因素对我国高储蓄率不具有解释作用的结论.通过将人口结构变量、经济增长变量联合对储蓄率回归,发现经济增长变量对储蓄率的解释作用并不显著,人口结构变量显著影响储蓄率,从而得出我国储蓄率长期趋势主要受人口结构变化影响的结论.这一发现对我国未来人口政策的调整具有重要的启示.
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| 关 键 词： | 储蓄率 原因 人口结构 |
Effect of Population Structure,Macroeconomic Factors and Economic Growth on the Saving Rate |
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| Institution: | SHEN Qiu - hong1＇2 (1. Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, CAAS, Beijing 100081, China; 2. China Population and Development Research Center, Beijing 100081, China} |
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| Abstract: | With the rapid economic development, China＇ s savings rate has been high. The paper selects varia- bles of population structure, macroeconomic factors and economic growth for exploring the reason of high saving rate. Cointegrated relationship of savings rate, deposit rate and urbanization rate has been denied through the EG two - step method of cointegration theory. The result found that the explanatory role of economic growth variables on the saving rate is not significant and population structure signifi conclusion that China＇ s high savings rate is mainly affected by rant for China＇ s future population policy adjustment. cantly affected the savings rate. So we can draw a the population structure. This conclusion is impor- |
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| Keywords: | saving rate reason population structure |
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