我国民生保障支出与居民消费的关系分析

本文从理论和实证两个角度分析了我国民生保障支出对居民消费的影响。一方面,本文通过描绘消费者的消费模式图,指出阶段性＂大额刚性支出＂的存在抑制了居民消费水平的提高;另一方面,我国现行的财政分权体制和官员激励制度促进政府投资,挤压居民消费。在此理论基础上,文章构建了居民消费与收入、民生支出的计量模型。本文以1978—2011年的相关数据,分别进行单位根检验、协整、向量误差修正模型、格兰杰因果关系检验等深入分析了民生支出对居民消费的影响。理论和实证结果均表明,政府增加民生保障投入能够促进居民消费。

The Influence of Household Livelihood Security Expenditure on Residents’ Consumption in China

This paper focuses on the impact of household livelihood security expenditure to residents’ consumption from two aspects of theory and empirical. On the one hand,through depicting the consumption patterns of consumers,the paper points out that the stage of ＂large rigid expenditure＂restrained the improvement of consumption level of the residents; on the other hand,the current fiscal decentralization system and officials’ incentive system in China’s promote government investment,but extrusion residents consumption. On the basis of this theory,this paper constructed the measurement model of consumption and income,and residents spending. This paper analyzes deeply the impact of people’s livelihood expenditure on household consumption by making respectively unit root test,cointegration,vector error correction model,Granger causality test by using the relevant data of 1978- 2011. Theoretical and empirical results show that the livelihood security investment improvement of government can promote consumption.