住房市场过度投资效应检验

为了验证对住房投资是否存在过度投资,通过对我国2001年第一季度至2011年第四季度的住房投资、非住房投资和总产出的协整检验、Granger因果检验和误差修正模型的估计,和两部门模型的建立、经验数据的模拟,其结果表明：（1）从长期协整关系看,中国经济增长受住房投资增长影响强烈,并且住房投资对非住房投资存在明显的＂挤出效应＂;（2）房地产部门资本边际收益率平均约为其他部门资本边际收益率的20%,房地产过度投资明显。回顾宏观经济的运行,认为住房投资推动通货膨胀增长的机制仍然存在,建议提高房地产保有成本,从而降低房地产需求,结合金融市场改革,国内经济结构调整才能实现。

Test on Affection of Residential Market Overinvestment

In order to verify whether residential investment is undue,using residential investment,non- residential investment and GDP quarter data,the author made co- integration test,Granger cause test and estimation of Vector Error Correction Model（ VECM）. The results are the two points. The one point is that Chinese economical growth is subject to the powerful influence of the residential investment,non- residential investment has a crowding- out effect on residential investment. The other point is that marginal rate of real estate sector is about 20% of the other sector; the real estate sector is overinvested obviously. Reviewing on recent Chinese macro- economy the author thinks the system of promoting CPI inflation still exists. A suggestion is offered that improvement on tenure cost of real estate would reduce the demand for real estate. Together with finance market reformation,the readjustment of economic structure is going to be realizable.