内蒙古人口结构、收入增长与城镇居民储蓄率的实证研究

从历年反映人口结构的相关数据中,发现内蒙古的人口结构在逐渐变化,劳动人口对未成年人口的抚养比率逐渐降低,对老年人口的抚养比率却逐渐提高。内蒙古人口年龄结构类型逐步进入老年型,而人口老龄化势必会对居民储蓄率产生一定的影响。本文选取了1985-2012年的相关变量数据,通过建立向量自回归模型及协整检验、脉冲响应函数和方差分析等一系列针对非平稳时间序列建模的分析方法,在一定的经济理论基础之上,分析了人口结构、收入增长对内蒙古居民储蓄率的影响。本文在人口结构、收入增长与居民储蓄率的实证分析中,首先验证了凯恩斯的绝对收入理论,不考虑人口结构的改变,得出影响储蓄率的主要因素并不是收入,也说明凯恩斯的绝对收入理论并不能很好的解释内蒙古当期的储蓄现象。然后又以莫迪利安尼的生命周期假说为理论基础建模,得出的结论与生命周期假说一致。人口老龄化会导致储蓄率的下降,而且人口结构的变化对储蓄率的影响远大于收入。长期来看,由储蓄率、收入增长率、负担少儿系数和负担老年系数这四个变量构成的经济系统是稳定的。

Empirical Research on Population Structure,Income Growth and Urban Residents Savings Rate in Inner Mongolia

Relevant data from previous years to reflect population structure shows that population structure in a gradual change in Inner Mongolia,the labor force dependency ratio to a minor population decreased,the population of elderly dependency ratio has gradually increased. Inner population age structure types gradually are entering into old age type, while residents of the aging population will inevitably have some impact on the savings rate. This paper selects the relevant variable data of 1985- 2012 years, by establishing vector auto regression model and co- integration test, a series of impulse response analysis method for non — stationary time series modeling functions and variance analysis, the theoretical basis of certain economic on the analysis of the structure, the impact of income growth on household savings rate of the population of Inner Mongolia. Based on the empirical analysis of the population structure, income growth and household savings rate, first verify that the Keynesian theory of absolute income, without regard to demographic changes,draw the main factors affecting the savings rate is not income,also shows that Keynes＇ s absolute income theory does not explain well the phenomenon of Inner Mongolia current savings. Then again based on the theory modeling of Modigliani＇ s life cycle hypothesis, life- cycle hypothesis is consistent with the conclusions drawn. An aging population will lead to a decline in the savings rate, and the impact of demographic changes on the savings rate is much greater than income. In the long run,the economic system is stable constituted by the savings rate, revenue growth, the burden of children aged coefficients and coefficients of these four variables burden.