银行竞争与经济增长的协整和因果关系分析

文章运用中国1979—2006年的时间序列数据，从中国金融变革路径的角度，分析了经济增长和银行集中度的关系，考虑到中国金融体制改革的轨迹，用非国有银行的信贷余额占整个信贷余额的份额作为银行竞争的指标。利用协整和因果关系分析得出：非国有银行信贷余额的份额和经济增长存在长期的协整关系．其信贷余额的增加能够促进经济增长；非国有银行信贷余额比例的增加是促进经济增长的原因，而反之则不是。说明了由政府主导而不是由市场诱发的中国高度集中的银行体制改革促进了我国经济的发展，尤其在中国的劳动密集型行业大发展阶段。考虑到我国地区发展不平衡及沿海产业转移的背景，本文提出中西部地区应该发展中小银行，而东部地区应该适当加大银行的集中度等政策建议。

Banking Competition and Economic Growth: Based on Cointegration Tests and Granger Causality Tests

The paper assesses the effect of banking competition on economic growth using the data for China during 1979- 2006. The conclusions in cointegration and Granger causality tests are that there is a long-term cointegration relationship between non - state-owned credit share and economic growth ,the increase in credit share promote economic growth and non - state-owned credit share is Granger causality of economic growth while the contrary is not.