我国股票市场和房地产市场对货币流速的影响

探讨股市和房市对货币流速的效应是对货币流速影响因素进行实证研究的一个方向。实证结果表明,我国股市、房市变量与狭义货币流速、广义货币流速均存在长期均衡关系,且与货币流速负相关,狭义货币流速主要受股市影响,广义货币流速主要受房市影响。股市和房市导致货币流速下降的原因,有助于解释我国的一些经济现象,同时也提醒我们应进一步规范股市和房市的发展,央行制定货币政策时应该考虑股市和房市对货币需求的影响,要采取预防性货币政策,保持经济与金融的稳健运行。

Effect to Currency Turnover Brought by Stock and Real Estate Market

Study on the effects of the stock and housing market is a direction of empirical research on determinants of monetary velocity.Empirical results show that there exist long-run equilibrium relation between variables on the stock and housing market and narrow monetary velocity and broad monetary velocity,and variables on the stock and housing market are negative correlative with narrow monetary velocity and broad monetary velocity in China.Narrow monetary velocity is mainly affected by the stock market and broad monetary velocity is mainly affected by the housing market.The causes of the stock and housing market leading to descending velocity of money contribute to explain some economic phenomena,and remind us of further normalizing the stock and housing market.The central bank should keep an eye on the effects of the stock and housing market on money demand when laying down monetary policy,and adopt precautionary monetary policy in order to steady operation of economy and finance.