中国经济增长、汇率变动与对外贸易关系的实证研究

本文利用时间序列分析方法,考察了1978-2004年中国经济增长、汇率变动与对外贸易的关系。实证结果表明,经济增长是对外贸易的核心影响因素;无论是名义汇率还是实际汇率,都不是对外贸易的重要影响因素。事实上,中国的贸易顺差来源于中国得天独厚的成本优势以及美国对中国不当的贸易政策。因而,要解决中美之间贸易失衡问题,美国必须调整国内的经济政策和对中国的贸易政策。

Empirical Research On The Relationship Among China's Economic Growth, Exchange Rate Fluctuation And Foreign Trade

This paper discusses the relationship among China's economic growth, exchange rate fluctuation and foreign trade during the period from 1978 to 2004 by using time series analysis method. It shows that China's economic growth is a core factor affecting foreign trade. Neither nominal exchange rate nor real exchange rate has great influence on China's foreign trade. In fact, China's foreign trade surplus stems form it's unique cost superiority and America's improper foreign trade to China. To solve the problem of trade imbalance between China and America, America has to adjust its domestic economic policy and foreign trade to China. Any action forcing RMB to appreciate is not favorable to the common interest between the two nations, and the problem of trade imbalance can't be solved satisfactorily.