我国外汇储备货币组合的实证分析

截至2006年2月我国外汇储备达8536亿美元,超过日本成为世界外汇储备持有量第一大国,其后我国外汇储备也呈不断增长的态势,到2007年3月已达12020.31亿美元.外汇储备的持续增加意味着面临的风险也在持续增加.因此,如何确定合理的外汇储备币种组合成为目前需要迫切研究的课题.本文根据国内外已有研究确定了外汇储备货币结构的影响因素,结合因子分析法,得出了我国外汇储备币种组合的新选择,提出了我国外汇储备货币组合的对策建议.

Reserve Currency Composition: An Empirical Study of China

Up to February 2006,foreign exchange reserves of China have reached 853.6 billion,and China has become the country which holds the most foreign exchange reserve.Thereafter the quantity of reserves was increasing all the time,and reached 1202.031 billion in March 2007.However,such a great amount of reserves will bring risks with it.So it becomes one of the most important subjects that how to get the optimal currency composition of China.In this paper,we choose 8 factors which affect the composition of foreign exchange reserve according to related theories.Then the optimal composition of reserves is figured out using factor analysis.Finally,we come into a conclusion and give some policy suggestions.