海南省城乡居民消费超敏感度分析

本文利用1981—2006年的有关统计数据和状态空间模型对海南省城乡居民的消费超敏感度进行了变参数分析。分析发现，城镇居民消费超敏感度远高于农村居民。1990年代后期，城镇和农村居民消费对同期收入的超敏感系数都有上升趋势，政府采用短期财政政策会有较大效果；城镇居民的利率弹性为正，利率变动的替代效应大于收入效应，农村居民的情况恰好相反，其利率弹性为负，利率变动的替代效应小于收入效应，目前利率水平不利于提高农村居民消费水平。

Ultra-sensitivity Analysis on Consumption of Urban and Rural Residents in Hainan Province

This paper is based on the relevant statistical data from 1981 to 2006 and we make an ultra-sensitivity analysis on the consumption of urban and rural Residents in HaiNan Province by state-space model.The results showed that: super-sensitive consumption of urban residents is more higher than rural residents,and have a rising trend,that means short-term fiscal policy adopted by the government will have greater effect;The elasticity of The interest rate for urban residents is positive,the substitution effects is larger than the income effect,while the rural residents is opposite,so the current interest rate level is not conducive to raising the consumption of rural residents level.