Modeling Spatial and Temporal House Price Patterns: A Comparison of Four Models |
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Authors: | Bradford Case John Clapp Robin Dubin Mauricio Rodriguez |
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Institution: | (1) Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Washington, DC, 20551;(2) Centre for Real Estate, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CN, 06269-1041, U.S.A;(3) Department of Economics, Weatherhead School of Management, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, OH, 44106;(4) TCU, Box 298530, Fort Worth, TX, 76129 |
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Abstract: | This research reports results from a competition on modeling spatial and temporal components of house prices. A large, well-documented database was prepared and made available to anyone wishing to join the competition. To prevent data snooping, out-of-sample observations were withheld; they were deposited with one individual who did not enter the competition, but had the responsibility of calculating out-of-sample statistics for results submitted by the others. The competition turned into a cooperative effort, resulting in enhancements to previous methods including: a localized version of Dubins kriging model, a kriging version of Clapps local regression model, and a local application of Cases earlier work on dividing a geographic housing market into districts. The results indicate the importance of nearest neighbor transactions for out-of-sample predictions: spatial trend analysis and census tract variables do not perform nearly as well as neighboring residuals. |
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Keywords: | kriging out-of-sample prediction data snooping local polynomial regression smoothing regression semiparametric models cluster analysis nearest neighbors hedonic models |
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