人民币升值对宏观经济的冲击效应分析

自2003年底以来,人民币汇率问题一直是全世界关注的焦点。2005年7月21日,央行宣布人民币升值2%,放弃钉住美元,采用了参考一揽子货币的汇率制度,但人民币汇率升值对我国宏观经济的冲击作用一直存在争论。针对这一问题,本文对影响人民币升值的国内外因素进行分析,并研究人民币升值对我国宏观经济冲击效应的强度和影响期限。通过汇率和宏观经济变量之间的协整关系和脉冲效应分析,本文发现,人民币汇率的变动对消费的冲击是长期的,而对国民收入和投资的影响是中期的,对M1具有正向冲击,对M2在当期具有正向冲击,之后便为负向冲击。另外,人民币升值对进口有一定的促进作用,对出口有微弱的倒V型的正向冲击作用。尽管从国内外因素看,人民币升值趋势在一定时期内仍然会持续。但本文研究发现,担心人民币升值危及出口、FDI流入及就业显然是多余的。

On the Macroeconomic Impact Effect of RMB Appreciation

The exchange rate of RMB has raised significant global concerns.In July 21,2005,the central bank of China declared RMB appreciated by 2% and its adoption of a new exchange rate system consists of a basket of currencies instead of pegging to US dollar.In recent years,there exists a dispute on the macroeconomic impact effect of RMB appreciation.Focusing on this dispute,this paper looks into the domestic and international factors that influence the RMB exchange rate and the intensity and duration of the macroeconomic impact effect causing by the RMB appreciation.Through the cointegration analysis between exchange rate and macroeconomic variables and the pulse effect,this paper finds that the RMB exchange rate has a long-term and medium-term impact on consumption and domestic revenue respectively as well as positive impact on M1,positive impact at the beginning and negative impact later on M2.Besides,the appreciation of RMB has a positive impact on import and a slightly inverted V-shaped positive impact on export.Due to the domestic and international factors,the trend of RMB appreciation will lasts for a certain period.However,this paper concludes that the worry about the negative impact on the export,FDI inflow and employment causing by RMB appreciation is needless.