人民币实际汇率与宏观经济变量之间关系的实证分析

本文在对人民币汇率与宏观经济变量之间关系的理论分析基础上，利用协整检验方法考察了1992年1季度～2003年1季度人民币实际汇率与宏观经济变量之间的关系。实证分析结果表明，模型的所有估计系数的符号与建模时设定的符号相一致，并且人民币实际有效汇率与所考察的各宏观经济变量之间存在着惟一的长期均衡关系。这种长期均衡关系的存在能从一个侧面反映出在考察期间内人民币汇率的调整和变化是适应中国宏观经济内外平衡需要的。

The Relationship between the Real Exchange Rate of RMB and Macroeconomic Variables: Empirical Evidence

This paper adopts the approach of cointegration test to study the relationship between the real exchange rate of RMB and macroeconomic variables on the basis of the theoretical analysis. The result shows that the signs of the estimated regression coefficients are the same as the signs predicted and there is only one long-term equilibrium relationship between them respectively. The existence of cointegration relationship suggests that the adjustment of exchange rate can meet the requirement of reaching both the internal and external economic balance during the last decade.