关注货币流通速度的变化——提高货币政策有效性的重要环节

近年来,我国央行的银根不断放松,货币供应量不断大幅增长,其增长率持续超过国民经济增长率与物价变动率之和,但货币政策的效果仍然不佳。一个可能的解释就是:在超额货币供应的同时,出现了货币流通速度的下降。中国货币流通速度的变化,主要是由经济转轨过程的特殊性所致。从理论上讲,货币供给量和货币流通速度的变化都会影响总需求,当中央银行只是通过单方面调节货币供应量来调整GDP的预期变化时,货币流通速度的变化方向和变化速度就有可能会直接促进或抵消货币供给量的变动效果,进而影响货币政策的有效性。当前货币政策的重点应在保持货币供应量稳定增长的情况下,通过外生变量来影响并控制货币流通速度,同时防止货币流通速度的非正常加速而诱发的通货膨胀。

The Changes of China Currency Circulation Speed——The Important Factor to Improve the Efficiency of China Currency Policy

In the recent years, China Central Bank has been loosing the currency policy with tremendous increment of currency supply amount. The increasing rate is above the sum of domestic economic increment rate and price changing rate. However, the effectiveness of this policy is not outstanding yet. One possible explanation goes like this: the currency circulation speed slows down accompanied with the over-supply of currency which is due to the speciality during economic reforming process in China. Thus the current currency policy ought to focus more on impacting and controlling the circulation speed via external variables, under the condition of the stable increasing of currency supply, as well as preventing the inflation incurred by abnormal acceleration.