增值税转型对财政收入影响的实证研究——以吉林省为例

本文以吉林省为例,实证分析了增值税转型对财政收入的影响。结论表明:局部转型不会给中央财政收入带来较大冲击,短期内地方财政收入存在减少的因素、但影响并不大,对个别以单一产业结构为主的市县财政收入有一定的影响。Granger因果检验表明,增值税对财政收入变化产生的影响效应需要滞后4年才能显现出来;协整分析表明,增值税与财政收入之间存在着长期稳定的均衡关系,增值税转型政策在短期内会对财政收入产生一定的影响,但这种影响效应较小。

An Empirical Analysis of VAT Transformation on Government Revenue in Jilin Province

Treating Jilin province as sample,this paper explores the impact of VAT transformation on the government revenue by virtue of empirical analysis.Partial transition sets forth no dramatic sway on central government revenue,whereas the short term takes on a downward trend in local revenue equipped with trivial effect and certain impact is apparent in several cities which are characteristic of single industry structure.Granger causality test implies that the influence of value-added tax transformation on government revenue will obviously surface after a four-year time lag;Co-integration analysis signifies that there exists stable long-term equilibrium between financial revenue and value-added tax and VAT restructuring policies will slightly dominate government revenue in the near future.