我国的M1/M2(1978-2002):长期趋势、水平与周期波动

本对我国1978—2002年的M1／M2的长期趋势、水平和周期波动进行了研究，结果表明1978—1995年，中国的M1／M2呈急剧下降的态势，但是从1996至今则基本保持平稳。另外从国别比较来看，我国属于M1／M2比较高的国家(地区)之一，这表明我国的居民和企业由于支付制度、取款成本、规避税收等原因比美、日等国家的经济主体对M1的需求高很多。除开长期走势之外，中国的M1／M2还伴随着经济活动呈周期性的波动，实证分析结果表明1996年前的经济增长率是M1／M2周期波动的Granger原因，但1996年以后则必须由名义利率、通货膨胀率和股票市场交易量的变动才能说明M1／M2的波动。

The Long-tem Trend, Level and Fluctuation of China's Ratio of M1 to M2:1978-2002

This paper studies the long-term trend and fluctuation of monetary liquidity in China. The result reveals a rapid declining trend on the ratio from 1978 to 1995, but the ratio keeps stable from 1996 to 2002. Moreover, the comparative analysis across countries indicates that the level of the ratio is relative-ly high. The ratio is fluctuating periodically along with economic cycle. The result of positive analysis re-veals the economic growth rate is Granger causality of fluctuation of the ratio over the span from 1978 to 1995, but only economic growth rate, nominal interest rate and the stock trading volume can explain the fluctuation of the ratio over the period from 1996 to 2002.