汇率制度、资本流动与金融危机:理论和实证分析——东亚金融危机视角

20世纪90年代,几乎所有发生金融危机的国家当时都实行固定或钉住汇率制度。东亚金融危机爆发前,东亚各经济体大多实行钉住美元的相对固定汇率制,大量国际资本流入,本币严重高估,经常项目巨额逆差,宏观经济严重失衡。在汇率贬值的预期下,国际投机资本对东亚经济体货币发动攻击,大量资本流出,受攻击的经济体外汇储备耗尽,最终导致实际钉住美元的固定汇率制崩溃,金融危机爆发,蔓延成危及东亚乃至世界的金融危机。东亚金融危机的事实表明,金融危机、资本流动和汇率制度之间存在着密切关系。

Exchange Rate Regimes, Capital Flows and Financial Crises:Theoretical and Empirical Analyses A Perspective from East Asia Financial Crisis

Before Asian Financial Crisis,most of East Asia economies adopted Dollar-Pegged Exchange Rate Regimes,large quantities of capital flowed in,resulting in severe appreciation of home currencies,current account deficits and macroeconomic disequilibrium.Under the exchange rates depreciation expectation,speculative capitals attacked East Asia economies and flowed out,foreign exchange reserves exhausted and Dollar-Pegged exchange rate regimes collapsed,then financial crisis broke out,and spread over through the whole Asia and world.East Asia Financial crisis demonstrates that exchange rate regimes,capital flows and financial crises are closely interacted,under free capital flow,Pegged or fixed regimes are prone to crises.