关于"通货胀缩"趋势的研究

2003年以来我国的宏观经济形势,从经济增长、就业、物价、国际收支平衡四大宏观调控目标来看,总体上是好的.但是,宏观经济从2003年4季度到今年1季度以来出现了原材料、燃料、动力、部分生产资料价格以及粮食和食品价格已经上涨或涨幅较大,而生活资料工业品出厂价和工业消费品价格涨幅较小或仍在下降的比较特殊的经济现象,即本项研究称之为"通货胀缩"的经济现象,必须引起高度关注.本项研究报告,以这种较为异常的经济现象作为切入点,就其产生的原因、"通货胀缩"可能的演变趋势等相关问题展开讨论,深入剖析、思考,并就控制和引导调整固定资产投资的规模和结构、把握货币政策、财政政策,以及粮食和土地政策、消费和进出口政策等宏观调控措施,保持经济平稳、协调、快速发展提出了若干对策建议.

A Research Report on Trend of"Bi-flation"

Evaluated from the four macro-regulation targets, which are economic increase, employment, inflation index and international balance of payment, the current macro-economic situation in China is overall satisfactory. But there has been arising a peculiar economic phenomenon that is called "bi-flation" in this research in China's macro-economy from the fourth season of 2003 to the first season this year. The author here draws high attention to this economic phenomenon due to its peculiarity. On one hand, the prices of raw materials, fuels, energy, some means of production, corn and food have either increased or been rising dramatically, on the other hand, the ex-factory price of some means of livelihood and the price of the industrial consuming products has been rising at a lower rate and even has been decreasing. Cut from the point of this peculiar economic phenomenon, this research report deeply studies the cause, possible evolvement trend and other factors with regard to the "bi-flation". Aiming to keep China 's economy developing stably, coordinately and quickly, the research report raises some counter suggestions on such macro-regulation measures as control and regulation of the scale and structure of the fixed assets investment, properly applying of the monetary policy, fiscal policy, food and land policy, consumption policy and import and export policy, etc.