积极财政政策的可持续性分析

本文分别从当前宏观经济形势、我国政府债务风险和公共部门投资的挤出效应三个方面考察了我国积极财政政策的可持续性。认为我国当前的经济形势下 ,积极财政政策的淡出还为时尚早 ;我国单纯的国债风险并不高 ,但是我国政府的综合债务风险却相当大 ,控制我国综合债务风险的关键是控制存量 ;我国公共部门对民间投资的挤出效应不明显 ,当前民间投资不活跃的主要原因是另一种“挤出效应” ,即对民间投资的歧视和限制 ,要改变这种情况的主要方法是改革

Anlaysis of Expanding Fiscal Policy's Sustainability--Also Discussing the Crowding Out Effect of Public Sector Investment

Sustainability of expanding fiscal policy is discussed in this text respectively from macroeconomy situations, risk of government debt, crowding out effect of public sector investment. It is concluded in this text that it is still early for expanding fiscal policy to fade out, and concluded that; Our country's simple national debt risk is not high, but the comprehensive debt risk of our government is quite large, and the key to control comprehensive debt risk of our government is to control the stock.It is also concluded that the crowding out effect of our public sector is not obvious to folk investment, the main reason of inactive folk investment is another "crowding out effect", namely discrimination and limit to folk investment, the solution to solve this problem is deepening reform.