我国进出口快速增长的现状、趋势、问题及未来的政策选择

本文首先对改革开放以来我国外贸发展的历程及现状进行了回顾;然后对我国外贸依存度快速上升的原因进行了分析并进出口发展的长期趋势进行了预测;结论表明:我国的进出口在未来5-10年内仍将保持较快的增长态势,但是10年以后我国的进出口增长速度将逐步降低然后保持相对稳定;最后本文总结我国进出口快速上升带来的一系列问题与隐患的基础上就我国外贸政策的微调、外贸商品结构的优化以及经济发展战略的转型提出相应的政策建议。

The Present Situation, Tendency and Problem Analysis on the Fast Growth of Import and Export in China and Future Policy Choice

Firstly,this paper reviews the evolvement trend of the foreign trade and analyzes the current situation of foreign trade in China.Then this paper analyzes the reasons on the fast growth of export and import and forecasts the long-term trend of the growth of foreign trade in China.The results reveal that the import and export will continue the high growth tendency in the following 5-10 years,but 10years later,the rising speed will slow down and will be relatively stable.Finally,this paper proposes suggestions on foreign trade policy and economic development strategy on the basis of analysis on the problems induced by high growth rate of import and export.