基于BEER模型的人民币均衡汇率研究

均衡汇率是进行汇率管理的关键概念。行为均衡汇率模型(BEER)从统计学意义上确定均衡汇率与基本经济因素之间的协整关系,可作为管理汇率和确认汇率失调的基础。本文运用BEER模型,采用1984年1季度-2005年4季度的季度数据对人民币均衡汇率进行了实证研究。研究结果显示:(1)贸易条件、劳动生率和净对外资产对均衡汇率具有正向作用,而广义货币供应量M2对均衡汇率具有负向作用;(2)人民币实际汇率出现过几次失调的时期,人民币实际汇率自我修正功能不强;(3)2005年7月21日的人民币汇率制度改革和汇率升值阻止了人民币实际汇率低估的扩大趋势。

The Reseaarch of Reminbi Equilibrium Exchange Rate Based on the BEER Model

Equilibrium exchange rate is a key concept to manage the exchange rate.The behavioral equilibrium exchange rate(BEER) model can make the relationship between the equilibrium exchange rate and the fundamental economical factors.Then,it may be offered as the base to manage the exchange rate and define the exchange rate misalignment.This paper uses the BEER model,taking the data from 1984 Q1 to 2005 Q4,analysis the Renminbi equilibrium exchange rate.The result shows:(1) The increase of the term of trade,the productivity and net foreign asset can make the equilibrium exchange rate appreciation,but the increase of money(M_2) can make the equilibrium exchange rate depreciation.(2) The real exchange rate has been misaligned several times,but the function of error modification of Renminbi was weak.(3) The reform of china's exchange rate system and Renminbi appreciation in July 21st 2005 stop the expanding of Renminbi underestimate.