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人民币汇率的巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应——基于弹性价格货币模型的分析
引用本文:李艳丽.人民币汇率的巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应——基于弹性价格货币模型的分析[J].中央财政金融学院学报,2006(12):38-43,68.
作者姓名:李艳丽
作者单位:武汉大学经济与管理学院 武汉430072
基金项目:武汉大学校科研和教改项目
摘    要:本文在汇率的弹性价格货币模型基础上,加入非贸易品与贸易品价格差异因素进行扩展,运用OLS回归方法分析了产出、货币供给、利率对1994-2005年人民币对美元汇率的影响。分析表明,弹性价格货币模型较好的解释了影响人民币对美元汇率的各个因素。贸易品非贸易品的价差显著影响着货币模型的购买力平价和名义汇率的偏离,但是BS效应并不存在。主要原因是作为政策手段的人民币汇率一直被低估,名义汇率低于贸易品购买力平价。

关 键 词:弹性价格货币模型  巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应  购买力平价
文章编号:1000-1549(2006)12-0038-06
收稿时间:2006-10-18
修稿时间:2006-10-18

The Balassa-Samuelson Effects of RMB: An Analysis Based on the Flexibility Price Monetary Model
LI Yan-li.The Balassa-Samuelson Effects of RMB: An Analysis Based on the Flexibility Price Monetary Model[J].Journal of Central University of Finance & Economics,2006(12):38-43,68.
Authors:LI Yan-li
Abstract:This paper adds the Balassa-Samuelson effect into the flexibility-price monetary model to explain the influence of output,monetary supply,interest rate,the price difference between tradable and non-tradable goods on the exchange rate between Chinese Yuan and US dollar during 1994-2005.The analysis shows that the monetary model can explain the factors influencing the exchange rate of RMB well.The price difference between tradable and nontradable goods affected the deviation of nominal rate from PPP notably ,but the BS effect didn't hold;the main reason lies in the underestimation of RMB,and the nominal rate was below the PPP in tradable goods.
Keywords:Flexibility-price monetary model Balassa-Samuelson effect Purchase power parity
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