北京市软件与信息服务业发展预测

灰色GM(1,1)模型可以预测较短时间序列的发展态势,马尔可夫模型可以对具有随机波动性的时间序列进行预测。本文结合了两种模型的特点,综合预测了2008年和2009年北京市软件与信息服务业营业收入可能达到的规模,从而对新兴产业的发展预测提供了一种尝试。

Forecasting on the Industry of Software and Information Service in Beijing

The GM(1,1)model and Markov model can be used to forecast the future,the former is based on short-length time series,the latter is based on stochastic fluctuating time series. This paper,which combines the merits of Grey model and Markov model and forecasts synthetically the business income of the Beijing's industry of software and information service in the year of 2008 and 2009,gives a try for the development forecasting on new industry.