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人民币汇率变化及其传递对中国外贸平衡影响的实证分析
引用本文:范方志,赵大平.人民币汇率变化及其传递对中国外贸平衡影响的实证分析[J].中央财政金融学院学报,2006(2):25-31.
作者姓名:范方志  赵大平
作者单位:[1]中国社会科学院金融研究所博士后流动站,北京100732 [2]复旦大学经济学院,上海200433
摘    要:本文根据中国的14个主要贸易伙伴样本性质的不同,分别选用误差修正模型和几何分布滞后模型,检验了人民币双边汇率与双边贸易收支的关系,并计算分析了双边汇率对双边贸易收支的短期影响和长期影响及双边汇率对不同贸易伙伴的影响差别。分析表明,在长期人民币汇率贬值几乎能改善我国对所有贸易伙伴的贸易收支,马歇尔-勒纳条件成立;在短期人民币汇率贬值恶化我国对大多数贸易伙伴的贸易收支,马歇尔-勒纳条件可能不成立。双边汇率贬值对双边贸易收支的影响可能呈现“J”曲线或“W”曲线形态。人民币汇率变化对发达市场经济伙伴的贸易收支敏感度高于对其他贸易伙伴的敏感度,随着人民币汇率制度改革的深入,汇率的价格传递机制会逐渐完善,这些差别会逐渐缩小。

关 键 词:汇率  传递  外贸平衡  实证分析
文章编号:1000-1549(2006)02-0025-07
收稿时间:12 12 2005 12:00AM
修稿时间:2005年12月12

The Empirical Analysis of the Influence of RMB Exchange Rate on China's Trade Balance
FAN Fang-zhi,ZHAO Da-ping.The Empirical Analysis of the Influence of RMB Exchange Rate on China''''s Trade Balance[J].Journal of Central University of Finance & Economics,2006(2):25-31.
Authors:FAN Fang-zhi  ZHAO Da-ping
Institution:FAN Fang-zhi ZHAO Da-ping
Abstract:This paper investigated the relationship of bilateral exchange rate and bilateral trade balance by the use of Error Correction Model and the Geometric Distributed Lag Model according to the different character of China's 14 main trade partner's samples,and analyzed the short-run and long-run influences of bilateral exchange rate on bilateral trade balance and the differences of these influences.The analysis indicates that the depreciation of RMB can improve almost all China's trade partner's trade balance in the long-run and Marshall-Lerner conditions satisfied,and deteriorate most of all China's trade partner's trade balance in the short-run and Marshall-Lerner conditions dissatisfied.The influence of depreciation of bilateral exchange rate on bilateral trade balance appears J curve or W curve.The sensitivity of RMB bilateral exchange rate changes to bilateral trade balance in developed market partners is greater than that of the others.Along with the deepening of the reform of RMB exchange rate system,the mechanism of exchange rate pass-through will be perfected and these differences will be reduced gradually.
Keywords:Exchange rate Pass-through Trade balance Empirical analysis
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