产业结构调整与中国通货膨胀缺口持久性

转轨时期作为中国经济结构最重要内容的产业结构调整可能诱发通货膨胀缺口持久性的变化。本文将通货膨胀缺口作为通货膨胀持久性的替代变量,采用新凯恩斯混合菲利普斯曲线模型对1996～2010年期间中国通货膨胀的持久性特征进行了考察,并运用Blanchard-Quah结构分解方法分析了产业结构调整对通货膨胀缺口持久性的影响。结果表明,与现有研究的结果相比,单变量和多变量模型评估的中国通货膨胀缺口持久性都显著较低。通货膨胀缺口受第一、二、三产业结构冲击减弱至0的时期分别为3、3、2个季度;第一产业的发展对通胀缺口持久性的短期冲击为正,第二、三产业的冲击为负;总体而言,第一和第二产业的发展弱化了通货膨胀缺口持久性,第一产业的作用更为显著,而第三产业则强化了通货膨胀缺口持久性。各产业结构变化对通货膨胀缺口持久性的冲击力度大小分别为第一、三、二产业。因此,治理通货膨胀必须考虑产业结构调整因素的影响。

On the Industrial Restructuring and Inflation-Gap Persistence in China

This paper estimates the dynamic characteristics of inflation gap persistence in China and the effects of industrial restructuring on inflation gap persistence from 1996 to 2010,using Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve(HNKPC) model and Blanchard - Quah structure decomposition.The results show that the inflation gap persistence,which measured by univariate and multivariate models,are both significantly lower than that of prior literatures.Specifically,with the shocks of the primary,secondary and tertiary industries,the lasting period of inflation gap back to zero are 3,3,2 quarters respectively.In the short run,the primary industry has positive impact on inflation gap persistence,while the secondary and tertiary industries have negative impact.Overall, the primary and secondary industries weakened the inflation gap persistence,while the tertiary industry strengthened it.The contributions of industrial structure shocks to inflation gap persistence are the primary,tertiary and secondary industries orderly.Therefore,controlling inflation should consider the influence of industrial structure adjustment.