金融体系中的顺周期性：我们是否需要一个新的宏观金融稳定框架

近几十年,中央银行成功地不断追求低通货膨胀目标制,降低了通胀和产出的可变性。与此同时,出现了大量的金融失衡和其他方面的失衡(明显持续地偏离历史标准)。如果这些失衡能恢复到均衡水平,应该会对产出增长产生显著影响。尽管这样的不利结果还仅仅是一种可能,但本文提出的问题是,我们是否能从一个新的宏观金融稳定框架中受益,在这个框架中货币政策和监管政策更多地关注如何避免出现失衡现象。

Procyclicality in the Financial System:Do We Need a New Macrofinancial Stabilization Framework

The successful pursuit of the objective of low inflation by central banks in recent decades has also delivered low variability of beth inflation and outpuL At the same time,numerous financial and otherimbal- ances(defined here as significant and sustained deviations from historical norms)have emerged.Should these imbalances revert to the mean,there could be significant effects on output growth.Although such an adverse outcome remains only a possibility,the question asked in this paper is whether we might st...