| 美国房地产周期与经济衰退的可预测性研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘春航,王清容.美国房地产周期与经济衰退的可预测性研究[J].金融研究,2008(2). |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘春航 王清容 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国银监会研究局;中国银监会研究局 北京市;北京市; |
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| 摘 要： | 本文对房地产周期与收益率曲线反转对经济衰退的预测两个变量的联合预测进行了理论探讨和实证检验。实证结果表明,房地产周期和收益率曲线反转的联合预测力远大于单变量预测力。将本文实证结果应用于2006年以来经济数据的分析表明,从预测角度看美国经济将在2007-2008年间进入衰退。
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| 关 键 词： | 房地产周期 收益率曲线反转 经济衰退 可预测性 Probit模型 |
Housing Cycle and Predictability of US Economic Recession |
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| Liu Chunhang Wang Qingrong.Housing Cycle and Predictability of US Economic Recession[J].Journal of Financial Research,2008(2). |
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| Authors: | Liu Chunhang Wang Qingrong |
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| Abstract: | The paper theoretically investigates housing cycle and inverted yield curve and empirically tests the result of combined prediction of economic recession by these two variables.The result shows that this bivariate model does perform better than a single one.It implies that monetary policy makers should pay attention to the housing cycle and the inverted yield curve in the future.Finally,the authors point out that there is a significant probability of economic recession in late 2007 or 2008 in the USA by app... |
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| Keywords: | housing cycle yield curve inversion recession predictability probit model |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 等数据库收录！ |
