养老金改革考验我们经济学的功底和智慧

本文从四个方面思考中国养老金改革问题。一是指出养老金改革是一个多维复杂的系统。宏观角度涉及养老金缺口问题和资本市场健康发展,微观角度与生产率密切相关。从国际比较来看,中国的老龄化程度比全球平均水平更严重,但养老金储备属于全球较低水平。从增强养老保障可持续性看,可能有延长退休年龄、增加储蓄、减少替代率、增加预筹资金并确保资金保值增值等四种办法。二是提出中国养老金改革的总体框架。本文建议建立一个较为综合的衡量目标,比如G30采用的"终身财务安全度量(Lifetime Financial Security,简称LFS)"的方法,跨部门比较政策效果,讨论维持在同一框架内,避免各说各话。本文还提出,中国养老金制度从DB型转向DC型,可以采取历史还原法和名义账户的办法,解决养老金改革转轨中的代际公平问题,以及城乡差别、所有制差别问题。三是提出"N对1"养老金发放模式与30余个养老金管理机构数量等养老金经营管理设想,并指出养老金投资回报与风险偏好须匹配,结合我国资本项目开放进程考虑养老金全球化投资。四是从住房、民粹主义等非金融领域,延伸思考养老金改革的复杂性。最后,本文总结指出,中国养老金改革是一项考验经济学功底和智慧的重大课题,应从多个维度全面分析、讨论、测算、论证,高度重视养老金改革对相关各方的激励作用,做出大胆有效的改革。

A Study of Pension Reform in China

This article considers pension reform in China. Its analysis comprises four parts. The first is an analysis of multidimensional influence induced by pension reform. From a macro perspective, the pension systems of most countries around the world are facing a financial gap or complete unsustainability. The conversion of pay-as-you-go pension systems into funded systems is closely tied to the development of capital markets. Pension funds are important sources of long-term capital and are vital to the efficiency of financial markets. From the micro perspective, the pension contribution model is closely related to labor productivity. If individual workers cannot observe contributions to their accounts, they will not consider them to be part of their salary, so they will not work hard. From the perspective of companies, contributions are regarded as extra fees with no output. During economic downturns, companies complain that the contribution rate is high and lobby the government to reduce it.The second part of the paper proposes a general framework for pension reform in China. First, it is necessary to ensure that discussion occurs within the same framework to avoid ineffective communication. At the moment, the goals of China's pension reform are highly disputed. Various government departments have different opinions on the problems, methods, and policies of the pension system. Hence, it is necessary to establish a more comprehensive measure, such as the Lifetime Financial Security (LFS) method adopted by the G30. This will enable the comparison of policy effects across departments. Second, this paper proposes a solution to the costs of pension system reform involving a transition to the Defined Contribution (DC) model. Most countries around the world have been gradually changing from Defined Benefit (DB) plans to DC plans. If China does the same, there will be problems of transition between the older and younger generations. The third part of this paper proposes several ideas regarding pension benefit payments and pension funds operations. One is to establish an N-to-1 model for paying pension benefits. In practice, ensuring the portability of pension benefits is easier said than done. Due to the development of Fintech and electronic payment systems, pension funds can make use of an N-to-1 payment system. Another idea is to balance the trade-off between competition and efficiency in pension fund administration. In theory, a certain degree of competition will encourage pension fund administrators to increase investment returns through better operations and management. Financial institutions that perform well will exert pressure on poorly-managed institutions. However, an excess of pension fund administrators will lead to high costs and loss of returns. Given the future long-term economic outlook and uncertainties in the financial markets, it is also impossible for government agencies to ensure long-term return on investment. The risk sharing of investment is also an important determinant of the sustainability of pension systems. Another idea is that pension fund administrators should invest globally. Some small countries make globally diversified investments to increase returns and diversify risks. As far as China is concerned, whether pensions can be invested globally depends not only on China's continued opening up, but also on the healthy development of the domestic capital market.The last component of this paper is cross-disciplinary, offering wide-ranging thoughts on pension reform. Pension reform involves a multitude of financial and other complex issues. Pension reform must deal with the relationship between voluntary and compulsory savings, and consider the relationship between pensions, housing, and health insurance. In addition, in many countries, the different political influence with different generations, and populist tendencies can easily lead to biased policies that aim to gain votes. Lastly, the paper concludes that China's pension reform is a major project that draws on the entire discipline of economics. We should comprehensively analyze, discuss, measure, and verify reform proposals from multiple perspectives. We should also focus on incentive mechanisms in pension reform to enable bold and effective reform.