中国的通货膨胀:一个新开放宏观模型及其检验

本文基于新开放宏观经济学(NOEM)框架分析了中国的通货膨胀问题,探讨了导致通货膨胀的原因以及各原因之间的相互关系,并利用贝叶斯向量自回归模型(BVAR)进行了计量检验。发现新开放宏观模型对中国的通货膨胀有较好的解释力,货币供应量无论是在长期还是短期都是诱发通货膨胀的主要原因,而外部冲击向中国的传导路径是受阻碍的。

China's Inflation:A New Opening Economy Macroeconomics Model and Its Test

In this paper,based on the new opening economy macroeconomics framework,the authors analyze China's inflation and explore the reasons that led to the inflation as well as the relationship between all causes. Meanwhile,the paper also uses Bayesian Vector Autoregressive(BVAR) for the measurement and it finds that the new opening economy macroeconomics model can preferably explain the inflation in China Finally,the authors point out that the money supply,whether in long or short term,is the main reason for inf...