金融资源配置、技术进步与经济高质量发展

随着我国发展阶段及内外部条件的变化,科技创新已成为新时代引领我国经济高质量发展的核心驱动力。本文以金融驱动技术进步的视角,构建内生增长DSGE模型,分析金融资源配置、技术进步和经济增长之间的关系。研究佐证了我国技术创新的逆周期性,并发现金融资源在企业生产性投资与创新投资之间的分配,可以通过改变生产要素投入规模和技术进步率两种途径影响经济增长,且这两种影响之间存在“跷跷板”关系,但后者更具主导性。在此基础上,诠释了金融、技术与经济的动态传导机制:经济扩张期,企业生产规模扩张,金融资源对生产性投资的支持增加,对创新的投入相对减少,技术进步率放缓;经济收缩期,企业缩减生产规模,金融资源对生产性投资的支持减少,对创新的投入相对增加,技术进步率提升。本研究的政策启示为,面对当前发展新矛盾、新挑战,应把握发展新格局、新机遇,进一步深化金融改革,优化金融资源配置机制,鼓励创新投资,充分发挥股权市场对企业研发创新的支持作用,并辅以稳健适度的宏观调控政策,为企业创新提供良性的宏观环境,激活企业创新需求,促进技术进步,推动经济高质量发展。

Financial Resource Allocation,Technological Progress,and Economic High-Quality Development

China's economy has progressed from rapid growth to high-quality development, in which it is necessary to strengthen innovation and improve technological progress to achieve an innovation-driven development mode. In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic increased the global level of uncertainty. In view of the changes to the development environment and China's goal of socialist modernization, the fifth plenary session of the 19th CPC Central Committee emphasized “persisting in the core position of innovation in the socialist modernization of China, and strengthening science and technology as a strategic support for national development.” This stressed the urgency of enhancing the ability to innovate. Innovation requires the support of the financial system. However, as China's financial marketization is still incomplete, the allocation of financial resources may be somewhat distorted and the financial support for enterprise innovation remains insufficient. Thus, we take the perspective of finance-driven technological progress and construct an endogenous growth dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model to analyze the relationship between financial resource allocation, technological progress, and economic growth, and further interpret the underlying dynamic transmission mechanism. We also propose policy suggestions for further financial reform to strengthen innovation and promote high-quality economic development. First, our results show that in the long run, the economic growth rate follows the steady growth level of technological progress, while in the short term economic growth is affected by technological fluctuations. Second, financial resource allocation factors such as equity investment, interest rates, and production investment can affect economic growth by changing the level of production input and technological progress, and we identify a “seesaw” relationship between these two effects. We find the main effect to be through technological progress. The increase of equity investment and the relative tightening of interest rates can promote endogenous economic growth by increasing innovation investment, while an excessive expansion of production investment will crowd out innovation investment and thus inhibit technological progress and economic endogenous growth. Third, as China's technological innovation is counter-cyclical, the following dynamic transmission process of finance, technology, and the economy can be identified. In times of economic expansion, interest rate constraints are relaxed, bank credit and enterprise production increase, and innovation investment is reduced, which will lead to a lower rate of technological and economic growth. Conversely, in times of economic contraction, interest rate constraints are imposed and enterprises will reduce production while innovation investment increases, which will promote technological and economic growth. The policy implications of the study are first that the new contradictions and challenges require new development patterns and opportunities. Further financial reforms should be implemented, the allocation mechanisms for financial resources should be optimized, and the capital market, particularly the equity market, should be used to support innovation. In addition, sound and moderate macro-control policies should be implemented to provide a benign macro environment for enterprise innovation and innovation demand, which can then lead to technological progress and high-quality economic development. We design a novel DSGE model to examine the endogenous growth of finance-driven technological progress, which reveals the mechanism through which commercial banks and equity markets can support the activities of production and innovation. This addresses the deficiencies of other DSGE models of endogenous technological progress, as we identify an allocation mechanism for financial resources. In terms of financial support for production and innovation investment, we simulate the mechanism through which financial resource allocation affects economic growth by changing the production input and the level of technological progress, thus providing a new analytical perspective. In addition, based on our analysis of the impact of financial resource allocation on technological progress and economic growth, we interpret the transmission mechanism underlying finance, technological, and economic development, which extends the current research on their relationships and provides policy guidance.