庚子赔款的债务化偿付及其影响

庚子赔款是中国近代史上最大一笔赔款,也是以长期债务形式体现的赔款。本文对庚子赔款的债务化偿付安排、利率水平、支付流程及经济影响等进行比较分析。发现:(1)庚子赔款本金4.5亿两,是清政府 1903 年财政收入的 4.33倍,但通过债务化偿付,每年支付赔款占财政收入比重逐步下降;(2)按购买力折算,庚子赔款本金约占1900年中国GDP的2.1%;(3)与当时主要国家长期债务利率相比,庚子赔款4%的利率属于中等水平;(4)将庚子赔款与德国“一战”赔款进行比较,发现赔款本金和占经济总量比重,中国低于德国,但中国每年支付赔款的财政压力高于德国;(5)庚子赔款偿付对近代中国的财税金融产生深刻影响,外籍海关税务司借机成为独立于中国政府的“第二财政”,外商银行藉此强化其“隐性中央银行” 地位,赔款还催生了货币流通的“新周期” 和“新危机”。总体上,赔款的债务化偿付安排不仅受政治外交形势主导,也与金融机构特别是银行跨国经营存在密切联系。赔款的经济影响不仅取决于偿付总量,也取决于经济治理能力和财税金融制度。国家财税金融制度落后,则受到冲击较大。

The Debt Repayment of the Boxer Indemnity and Its Impacts

In 1901,the Qing government was forced to sign the“Boxer Protocol”with western countries to pay 450 million“haikwan tael”of silver(the“Boxer Indemnity”).The research on the Boxer Indemnity is quite rich,but there are still some shortcomings.Previous studies are mainly based on traditional data and historical research methods,the application of new historical materials and new methods needs to be extended.Most studies treat the Boxer Indemnity as a separate event and are limited to commenting on the event and its impact,comparisons with other international indemnities of the same era and analysis of its connection with the global economic and financial markets are lacking.This paper studies the Boxer Indemnity and its impact from the perspective of debt.Based on previous research results and related materials,this paper compiles a flow chart of the Boxer Indemnity payment,and concisely explains the payment process of the Boxer Indemnity.Furthermore,from the perspectives of currency purchasing power and international comparison,it analyzes the equivalence of the Boxer Indemnity to the proportion of economic aggregate and government fiscal revenue,the value of the Boxer Indemnity and its historical influence in public finance,banking,currency and other aspects.The research findings of this paper include the following.First,the principal of the Boxer Indemnity is equivalent to 4.33 times of the Qing government's fiscal revenue in 1903.However,through the arrangement of debt repayment,the actual amount of the indemnity paid each year gradually decreased in its percentage to the fiscal revenue,avoiding the direct bankruptcy of the Qing government.Second,converted to the 1900 International dollar(Geary-Khamis Dollar)by the purchasing power parity,the Boxer Indemnity accounted for about 2.1% of China's GDP in 1900.In addition,due to the global depreciation of silver in the second half of the 19th century,the proportion of the Boxer Indemnity to the total indemnities in modern China is significantly lower when converted to the purchasing power of rice than in its silver amount.Third,compared with the domestic and foreign debt interest rates of the Chinese government at that time and the long-term sovereign debt interest rates of major countries around 1900,the 4%interest rate of the Boxer Indemnity is at a moderate level.Fourth,compared with Germany's war indemnity after World War I,the principal of the Boxer Indemnity is far lower in its proportion to the total national economic volume.However,China's actual payment each year is higher in its proportion to the fiscal revenue than that of the German indemnity.Unlike the German indemnity,the repayment of which produced unprecedented hyperinflation and exerted a great impact on the German history thereafter,the Boxer Indemnity did not bring hyperinflation to China.The main reason is that China did not have a real central bank and government credit paper money at the time,and the government could not relieve the fiscal pressure by issuing paper money indiscriminately,but the impact of the indemnity on China's financial system was more long-term.At last,the Boxer Indemnity had profound impact on China's finance,banking and currency.In terms of fiscal taxation,the Chinese Maritime Customs Service,which was managed by foreigners,took advantage of the Boxer Indemnity to expand its power,monopolized China's most important source of tax revenue and became“the second fiscal authority”independent from the Chinese government.In the financial market,foreign banks further strengthened their financial privileges and market advantages by handling the Boxer Indemnity business,and established their status as“recessive central banks”in China.In particular,the power expansion of the HSBC and the Citibank is the most obvious.In terms of currency,the Boxer Indemnity did not change the“old system”of China's chaotic currency system,but gave birth to a“new cycle”and“new crisis”in currency circulation,which became an important fuse for the Shanghai“rubber wave”(financial crisis)in 1910.Based on the above findings,this paper shows that the debt settlement of war reparations in modern history was not only dominated by political and diplomatic situations,but was also closely related to the transnational operations of financial institutions,especially banks.The economic impacts of war reparations depend not only on the total repayment amount,but also on the ability to govern the economy and the fiscal and financial systems.