工资生产率背离与实际汇率——中美巴萨效应再检验

本文通过放松巴萨效应(B-S效应)两大假设,构建了包含贸易品一价定律偏离和劳动力市场分割的开放经济局部均衡模型对人民币实际汇率进行分解,并使用中美服务业细分行业与制造业2004Q1-2016Q4季度数据,分组对人民币实际汇率的B-S效应及其传导渠道进行实证检验。研究发现:(1)中美之间B-S效应成立,但相对相对生产率通过影响相对相对工资从而影响物价水平,并最终影响实际汇率这一传导渠道不成立;(2)除传统B-S效应传导渠道外,我们发现相对相对生产率通过影响GDP进而影响实际汇率这一传导渠道;(3)产业结构失衡在一定程度上导致中国相对生产率和相对工资背离,使得相对相对工资的增加对人民币实际汇率产生负向(升值)作用。这说明,要时刻关注经济基本面,通过供给侧结构性改革提高劳动生产率,实现高端制造业和服务业的协调发展。

Wage Productivity Deviations and the Real Exchange Rate: Retesting the Balassa-Samuelson Effect

After the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the metal standard declined in favor of the fiduciary standard and currency crises sometimes occurred. In the international context, exchange rate pricing and maintaining exchange rate stability have always been topics of concern for academics, governments and central banks. Although the equilibrium exchange rate theory based on purchasing power parity plays an important role in exchange rate pricing, the real exchange rate is often not equal to one; the Balassa-Samuelson (B-S) effect provides a reasonable explanation for this.The B-S effect provides a new research perspective for real exchange rate changes. However, the model's strong assumptions are unlikely to be satisfied in developing countries, implying that relaxing these assumptions is one of the most important approaches of study in the B-S effect literature. Most studies only relax one of the assumptions of the B-S model. China does not conform to the status quo because of its deviation from the Law of One Price and the segmentation in its labor market. In this paper, we allow for both of these and construct an open economy partial equilibrium model to decompose the real exchange rate of the RMB. Our model includes the deviation from the Law of One Price in tradables and the segmentation in the labor market. We use data for service industry sub-sectors and manufacturing firms in China and the U.S. from 2004Q1 to 2016Q4 to conduct a grouped empirical analysis of the B-S effect for the real exchange rate of the RMB and its transmission channels.Our theoretical and empirical results suggest that(1) the B-S effect between China and the United States exists but the transmission channel of relative productivity affecting the price level by affecting relative wages, ultimately affecting the real exchange rate, is not signi ficant. (2) In addition to the traditional B-S effect transmission channel, we find that relative productivity affects the real exchange rate by affecting GDP, implying that productivity affects the real exchange rate by affecting the nominal GDP growth rate of both countries. (3) Industrial structure imbalances have caused the divergence between relative productivity and relative wages in China to a certain extent and the increase in relative wages has a negative (appreciation) effect on the RMB exchange rate. There are two main contributions of this paper. (1) We provide a comprehensive analysis of the B-S effect after relaxing assumptions from both the theoretical and empirical perspectives. In addition to verifying the existence of the traditional B-S effect and its transmission channel, we consider additional transmission channels of the B-S effect. (2) Deviating from the standard approach in the literature, we analyze service industry sub-sectors, paying more attention to industry heterogeneity, and find that industries with divergent wages and productivity in China are more in line with the B-S effect.Our findings have policy implications for China. Overall, the relative wages of the service and manufacturing industries in China are higher than those in the United States. China's relative productivity is both positive and negative, which means that China's non-tradable sector is more attractive to labor than its tradable one. We believe that this may be due to the distortion in China's industrial structure and because of other reasons that caused the deviation of relative wages and relative productivity in the service and manufacturing industries. To reduce this divergence, we need to unswervingly carry out supply-side structural reforms to improve labor productivity,realizing the coordinated development of high-end manufacturing and service industries. These reforms are needed to reverse the current distortion in the industrial structure and narrow the divergence in relative productivity and relative wages in the service and manufacturing industries.