人民币资本项目可兑换的前景和路径

人民币资本项目可兑换涉及国内国际多方面的问题,是一个达成共识的过程。本文综合分析了国际经验及资本项目可兑换与通货膨胀、汇率制度、国际货币体系等方面的关系,提出我国可以在多维区间内拟定目标,有计划、有步骤地推进人民币资本项目可兑换。我国自1996年宣布实现经常项目可兑换以来,已经在对外贸易、投资及其他多方面为实现资本项目可兑换打下了基础,为更有预见性地推动这一进程,还需要正视改革需要付出的代价,正确认识套戥行为,妥善解决双重价格问题,争取做到利大弊小,顺利推进。

Prospects and Path to China’s Capital Account Converibility

The opening of China’s capital account is a consensus-building process which has to do with various domestic and international issues.The paper analyzes the relevant international experiences,as well as the relationship of capital account convertibility with inflation,foreign exchange regime and international monetary system. Based on the analysis,China should set multi-dimensional targets for capital account opening,and proceed in a planned and phased manner.In fact,China has made significant process in international trade and investment since the opening of current account in 1996,which has laid a solid base for capital account opening. To accelerate the process and minimize negative impacts,it is necessary to recognize the prices for reform,to examine potential arbitrage activities,and to resolve the issues related to double-tracked prices.