地方政府债务、空间溢出效应与区域经济增长

在区域协调发展和城市群不断扩大的背景下,本文基于2008-2018年我国271个地级市的平衡面板数据,利用动态空间杜宾模型探究地方政府债务通过基础设施建设渠道促进区域经济增长的作用机制。研究发现:(1)地方政府债务存在空间溢出效应,即本地的地方政府债务能够促进邻近区域的经济增长。该结论不随模型设定、代理变量、估计方法更改而发生变化。(2)从时间维度上看,基础设施的服务期限较长,因此地方政府债务对邻近区域经济增长的空间溢出效应存在时间累加,即长期效应大于短期效应。(3)从空间维度上看,我国省际间存在市场分割,导致地方政府债务的空间溢出效应省内强于省外。与此同时,地方政府债务的空间溢出效应主要存在于东部发达区域。(4)机制研究发现,基础设施作为政府提供的公共品,具有正外部性,在促进本地经济增长的同时,通过提升区域内互联性,促进了邻近区域的经济增长。本文研究表明,地方政府债务发行应同时考量本地效应、空间溢出效应以及区域差异;此外,制定地方债务相关政策时应在稳增长(同时考虑本地经济增长和区域经济增长)和防风险之间寻求平衡。

Local Government Debt,the Spatial Spillover Effect,and Regional Economic Growth

China's “Report on the Work of the Government” issued in 2020 emphasized the crucial role of local government debt in stabilizing investment and promoting economic growth. Under the premise of controllable risks, local government debt acts as the primary source of funds for the government to provide public goods and a tool for counter-cyclical adjustment, thus promoting economic and social development. China's 14th Five-Year Plan also elevates regional coordinated development to the level of a significant national strategy, proposing the building of urban agglomerations and metropolitan areas with “infrastructure interconnection” and “gridded transportation.” The regional distribution of the debt limit focuses on the three major urban agglomerations, and provincial-level local governments are also more inclined to allocate the debt limit toward urban agglomerations. The effect of local government debt on regional economic growth is therefore worthy of further discussion.
We explore the effect and mechanism of local government debt on regional economic growth in the context of coordinated regional development and the rapid growth of urban agglomerations. We obtain balanced panel data for 271 prefecture-level cities in China from 2008 to 2018 and apply the Dynamic Spatial Durbin Model. The main conclusions are as follows. First, local government debt can promote economic growth in neighboring regions, and its spatial spillover effect does not change with the model settings, proxy variables, or estimation methods. In terms of the spatial spillover effects, geographically adjacent regions can enjoy the positive externalities brought by public goods such as transportation infrastructure, thus making a geographical connection. Second, the spatial spillover effect of local government debt on the economic growth of neighboring regions has a time dimension: the service life of transportation infrastructure is long, and thus, there is an accumulation over time, i.e., the effect over the long-term is more significant than that in the short-term. Third, interprovincial market segmentation and administrative barriers cause the spatial spillover effect of local government debt to be stronger within than outside the province. We identify the geographical limit of the spatial spillover effect to be around 400 km, and it is mainly evident in the developed eastern regions. Finally, local governments mainly incur debts so that they can invest in the construction of transportation infrastructure. Similar transport development in neighboring regions will enhance transport grids and interconnectivity, thus significantly contributing to the economic growth of the neighboring regions. We therefore identify improvements in transportation infrastructure as the mechanism behind the positive effect of local government debt on the economies of neighboring regions.
Our conclusions offer the following policy implications. First, local government debt issuers should consider both direct and spatial spillover effects. Local government debt has a positive spatial diffusion effect through the development of the transportation network, as this encourages the economic growth of neighboring regions. The effect of local government debt can thus spill over to neighboring regions, and to maximize this effect, urban agglomerations and metropolitan areas should ensure that debt use is more efficient and strive to break through any barriers to enhance regional interconnectivity. This is conducive to optimizing the spatial structure of the population and economy and can ensure that investment is effective and satisfies consumer demand, thereby promoting regional economic growth. Second, In the key regions mentioned in the national major strategic deployment and the “14th Five-Year Plan”, moderately advanced infrastructure investment in regions with high investment efficiency and a high debt ceiling will help to play the role of debt funds in expanding effective investment and stabilizing growth. At the same time, moderately advanced infrastructure investment contributes to accumulating the spatial spillover effect of local government debt. Third, the crowding-out effect of local government debt should be prevented, and the level of debt should be monitored. As the scale of local government debt increases, its role in promoting local economic growth gradually weakens, and a crowing-out effect can occur. The government's premise is that the risks are controllable, and thus, China can continue to promote regional economic growth through a moderate amount of debt. For urban agglomerations experiencing robust economic development, an appropriate increase in local government debt can encourage further economic growth. In addition, the input-output efficiency of local government debt funds should be fully considered, the formulation of local debt-related policies should be tailored to local conditions and strike a balance between stabilizing growth (considering both local and regional economic growth) and preventing risks.