实体杠杆对经济增长的影响研究——基于金融稳定的调节效应

本文以全球43个国家和地区2001-2020年的动态面板数据为研究样本,实证检验不同实体部门杠杆对经济增长的影响差异及作用机制。通过构造金融稳定指数,进一步论证金融稳定对实体杠杆与经济增长之间关系的调节效应。结果表明:实体杠杆与经济增长之间存在“倒U形”关系,不同部门杠杆对经济增长影响的“拐点”有所不同。机制检验发现,居民杠杆、企业杠杆和政府杠杆分别通过“消费”“投资”和“政府支出”渠道影响经济增长;金融稳定性的提升能够正向调节实体杠杆对经济增长的影响,提高实体杠杆对经济增长影响的“拐点”。上述结论对我国经济增长和杠杆调控具有一定政策启示。在经济运行过程中,应充分考虑各部门杠杆异质性,细化实体杠杆的调控方向,进一步优化杠杆结构,以期实现经济增长与金融稳定双重目标下的动态平衡。

The Effect of Real Sector Leverage on Economic Growth: Based on the Moderating Effects of Financial Stability

The effects of real sector leverage on the macro economy are of long-standing academic interest. Excessive real sector leverage exaggerates the true potential of economic growth. External shocks in the real sector amplify the financial system's vulnerability. High real sector leverage combined with the highly contagious and nonlinear effects of financial risks can adversely affect economic growth. In general, although scholars discuss the effects of real sector leverage and financial stability on the macro economy, some drawbacks exist in their assumptions. Excessive real sector leverage inevitably affects the growth of economies at various levels of development; however, the extent of this effect remains open to discussion, and no consensus has been reached yet. Besides debates concerning real sector leverage and economic growth, whether financial stability affects the correlation between real sector leverage and the macro economy is another matter of interest. Theoretically, financial stability is an important prerequisite for economic growth, and the effect of real sector leverage on the macro economy is inevitably affected by financial stability. However, two important questions exist: is the effect positive or negative？ And is the effect significant？ Clarifying the interactions among real sector leverage, the economy, and financial stability may help deepen our understanding of related issues. In addition, existing studies have considerable limitations with respect to research samples. Most of the foreign literature focuses on the United States, the eurozone, and other developed economies; by contrast, there is insufficient research on leverage in emerging economies, especially China. Domestic studies mainly focus on the effects of macro leverage on economic growth, mostly ignoring the heterogeneity of leverage across various sectors. Meanwhile, research on micro leverage mostly focuses on the leverage in a single sector and its influencing factors, without examining the effects of real sector leverage and financial stability on the macro economy from a global perspective.
This study uses the dynamic panel data of 43 countries and regions from 2001 to 2020 as the research sample and employs the systematic generalized method of moments estimation method to empirically assess the effects of real sectors leverage on economic growth. A financial stability index is constructed to assess the moderating effects of financial stability on the correlation between real sector leverage and economic growth. The results reveal an inverted U-shaped relationship between real sector leverage and economic growth, and the inflection points differ between sectors. Further tests to uncover the underlying mechanisms show that household, enterprise, and government leverages affect economic growth through the channels of consumption, investment, and government expenditure, respectively. Improvements in financial stability can positively adjust the effects of real sector leverage on the macro economy and improve the inflection point. These findings have certain policy implications in terms of a country's economic growth and leverage control. Thus, it is necessary to fully consider the heterogeneity of the leverage of various sectors and refine the regulatory directions of real sector leverage to achieve dynamic balance under the dual goals of economic growth and financial stability.
Compared with the existing literature, the marginal contributions of this study are mainly reflected in the following aspects. First,by incorporating the variables of real sector leverage, the heterogeneity effects of leverage in different sectors on the macro economy and the specific mechanisms are investigated, bridging the previous gaps caused by lack of relevant domestic studies. Second, this study explores the moderating effects of financial stability on the correlation between real sector leverage and the macro economy, providing useful empirical evidence for policy formulation, with the dual goals of economic recovery and financial stability.