战略性新兴产业的市场脆弱性及管理者过度自信--基于无锡尚德太阳能电力有限公司破产重组案例研究

利用数量技术方法构建了新兴产业市场脆弱性模型，并且用Matlab软件模拟了市场脆弱性演化趋势，利用文献法总结了管理者过度自信的测量方法和成因，用案例研究方法从市场脆弱性和管理者过度自信双视角分析了无锡尚德破产重组的原因。研究得出：新兴产业市场存在市场脆弱性问题，它受政策、偏好和技术三因素的影响显著；当前，新兴产业处于发展阶段，新兴产业的企业应该具备动态竞争能力，不宜采用规模化和成本化战略，宜采用专业化、小规模和差异化的柔性战略；管理者过度自信会让企业决策偏离对市场脆弱性的客观认识，从而导致企业在决策中采取更冒险的决策行为；战略性新兴产业市场脆弱性和管理者过度自信最终导致了无锡尚德的失败。最后，给出了一些管理建议。

Market Vulnerability and Managers' Overconfidence---Based on the Case of Wuxi Shangde Solar Electric Power Co., LTD's Bankrupt Reorganization

The model of market vulnerability in emerging industry has been constructed by the method of number and tech-nology. And the evolution trend of market vulnerability has been simulated by Matlab software. The causes and methods of managers' overconfidence has summarized by the literature method. And the analysis of the causes of WuXi Shangde solar electric power co. LTD's bankrupt reorganization used the case study method from tow-way viewing-angle of market vulnerabil-ity and managers' overconfidence. According to the study: market vulnerability exists in emerging industry. It was influenced by policy, preference and technology. Now, the emerging market is developing. It should have the dynamic competitive. And it should use the soft strategy of specialization, small scale and differentiation instead of the strategy of scale and cost. In addi-tion, due to the overconfidence, the business decision will deviate from the objective understanding of market vulnerability. And it will cause the risky decision making. The market vulnerability of emerging industry and managers' overconfidence make the Shangde's failure. In the end, there are some suggestions for management.