现金指标映射宏观经济量化关系研究

本文分析了我国现金投放和宏观经济运行情况,并以改革开放以来的相关数据为研究基础,运用协整检验、误差修正模型、格兰杰因果关系检验和方差分解对现金供应量M0对国内生产总值GDP和居民消费价格指数CPI的影响情况进行实证分析.结果显示：改革开放以来,我国现金供应总量呈现持续增长的特点,而且增长趋势与GDP、CPI变化趋势具有高度相关性;协整检验结果表明,M0与GDP和与CPI均存在长期稳定的均衡关系;M0是GDP和CPI的Granger原因;M0对GDP增长的影响较弱,对CPI的影响很强.基于实证研究结果,进一步提出了通过改善现金供应状况促进宏观经济平稳健康发展的相关政策建议.

Research on the Mapping by the Action of the Cash Index on the Macroeconomic Quantitative Relationship

The article first analyzes the situation of China＇ s currency issuance and macro economy,then explores the effect of cash supply （M0） on the GDP and CPI based on the relevant data since 1978, by means of the cointegration test, the error correction model, the granger causality test and the variance decomposition. The result shows that there＇ s a sustained growth in cash supply since the reform and opening up, and its trends has highly correlation with GDP and CPI. It had long-term stable equilibrium relationship between M0 and both GDP and CPI. M0 is the Granger cause of both GDP and CPI, the impact of M0 on GDP is weak but on CPI is very strong. Based on the empirical results, the article puts forward some policy suggestions to improve the cash supply, in order to promote macro economy runs smoothly and healthily.