江西省外商直接投资、贸易收支与实际有效汇率的动态关系分析

本文基于向量自回归模型对江西外商直接投资、贸易收支与实际有效汇率三者之间的动态关系进行了分析.实证结果显示,三者之间长期存在互为因果的关系.长期来看外商直接投资对贸易余额有一定的改善作用,人民币实际贬值的J曲线效应明显.出口空间的大小不是影响外商直接投资的主要因素,实际有效汇率的稳定有利于吸引外商直接投资.人民币的升值在一定时期内不会恶化江西省的贸易收支,但会对FDI的流入产生一定的负面影响.

Analysis on the Dynamic Relationships among Jiangxi Province' s FDI, Trade Balance and Real Effective Exchange Rate

This paper analyses the dynamic relationships among FDI,trade balance and real exchange rate in Jiangxi province based on a vector autoregressive model.The empirical result demonstrates there is a cause and effect relationship among the three variables in long term.FDI improves the trade balance in the long run and there is a J-curve effect for real depreciation of RMB on the trade. The appreciation of RMB will not deteriorate the trade account while it will have a negative effect on FDI inflows in a certai...