政府债券、宏观效应与政策调节--基于规模和流动性双重视角的DSGE效应分析

本文基于政府债券规模和流动性的双重视角,构建动态随机一般均衡模型,通过理论分析和数值模拟,研究二者对实体经济发展和金融风险变量的影响。研究显示:政府债券规模的增加促进了投资,刺激了产出和劳动供给,但过度扩张对实体经济也带来"挤占投资"和物价上升、消费下降等负面效应,同时通过债券作为金融资产的特性向金融部门蔓延并形成金融风险集聚;政府债券流动性增强一定程度上刺激了投资,促进了物价稳定,但也存在"挤占消费"和引起经济波动等负面效应;而政府债券流动性的提升有利于缓释金融风险,对实体经济长期可持续发展有益,但流动性过高也会带来系统性金融风险集聚。本文从促进政府债券一级市场和二级市场协同发展、总量和结构合理匹配、政府债券与实体经济有机契合、政府债券流动性管理与金融供给侧密切衔接等方面提出政策建议。

Government Bond,Macro Effect and Policy Adjustment--DSGE Effect Analysis Based on the Dual Perspectives of Scale and Liquidity

Based on the dual perspective of government bond scale and liquidity,this paper constructs the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to analyze the influence of them on the development of real economy and financial risk variables theoretically.Research shows that:the increase of government bonds promotes investment and stimulates output and labor supply,but excessive expansion also brings negative effects on the real economy,such as crowding-out investment,rising prices and falling consumption,etc.,and spreads to the financial sector and forms financial risk accumulation through the financial asset characteristics of bonds.To some extent,the increased liquidity of government bonds stimulates investment and promotes price stability,but there are also negative effects such as crowding-out consumption and economic fluctuations.The improvement of liquidity of government bonds is conducive to easing financial risks and beneficial to the long-term sustainable development of the real economy.Finally,this paper puts forward relevant policy suggestions from the aspects of promoting the coordinated development of the primary market and the secondary market of government bonds,the rational matching of the total amount and structure,the organic connection between government bonds and the real economy,and the close connection between the liquidity management of government bonds and the financial supply side.